My Argument

A few disclaimers before I write this:

1. Miguel Cabrera was/is one of my three favorite baseball players and was well before he joined Detroit. I've owned him in a fantasy baseball league for the last eight years. The fact he's going to win the Triple Crown is awesome. We're lucky as Tigers fans to have both Cabrera and Verlander, who are arguably the best at what they do. My arguments against Cabrera are in no way belittling his accomplishments.

2. I own Ken Burns' Baseball. Baseball is actually my favorite sport. I know what Cabrera's Triple Crown achievement means historically.

3. I am a combination of pro-saber and old-timer. I promise. I like sabermetrics because they at least try to quantify the parts of the game that have never been. This is not a top WAR award to me. WAR is resourceful, but nowhere near the end-all some have made it out to be. What does annoy me about those who attack the WAR-crowd is that the pro-Cabrera crowd completely neglect defense and baserunning when making their argument. Which side is neglecting more?

OK, let's get started:

Defense: The goal in the game of baseball (from a position player's standpoint) is simple; on offense, you try to score runs. On defense, you try to prevent the other team from doing so. My biggest argument has been that both of these matter. Anyone who is arguing in favor of Cabrera conveniently neglects to mention defense. This is because he's a poor defender. His range is zilch. He's performed better than most thought he would, and I'll give him that; regardless, he's one of the worst third baseman defensively in the league.

Trout has arguably been the best defensive centerfielder in baseball. I know the Angels actually play him in left when using Peter Bourjos, but the Angels have always targeted and utilized defense to put on their bench, and Bourjos would be a shoo-in for the Gold Glove if he was a full-time player. Either way, Trout has been amazing. He's robbed four HRs this season and is only the fourth player since 2004 to do that. Also, the Angels are second in baseball in doubles and triples allowed. This gap protection is arguably the biggest responsibility for a CF. Preventing teams from hitting doubles and triples goes a long way in preventing the opposition from scoring runs, the object of playing defense.

A little more, from ESPN (again, these are stats that have been around for a while; it's not a pro-Trout conspiracy):

Baseball Info Solutions computes plus-minus ratings for outfielders based on their ability to get to the balls hit to all different parts of the field. There is a rating for shallow flies, for medium-range flies and for deep flies. A fielder is rewarded if he makes a play on a ball hit to a spot in which others usually don’t. 

Trout rates as an average center fielder on shallow flies. But he excels in medium-range flies and deep flies. 

Trout’s reward on medium-depth and deep balls is a big one; he’s a plus-33, meaning he’s 33 “bases” better than the average center fielder. That’s the best in the majors. The next-best outfielder, Denard Span, rates seven bases behind him. 

Mike Trout has been an amazing defensive player this year. The funny thing is, Austin Jackson is still my Gold Glove winner in centerfield, but Trout is squarely in second. Still, he's been nearly better than anybody in baseball in preventing the other team from scoring runs.

Playoff argument: The Angels have a better record than the Tigers. They play in a tougher division with Oakland and Texas, meaning they play either 17 or 18 games against both of those teams. The Angels played AL playoff teams New York, Baltimore and near-miss Tampa Bay (better record than Detroit) more times because they only have four teams in their division while a whole third of Detroit's games were against Minnesota, Cleveland and Kansas City. My point? Detroit made the playoffs because they play in the AL Central and them making the playoffs has been one of the main points behind Cabrera being MVP. Say Detroit only had four teams in their division and had to replace the 18 games they played against Cleveland and split them among the Yankees, Rays and Rangers. Not so sure they make the playoffs.

Cabrera carried the Tigers: His September was amazing, there's not much denying of that. Did he carry them to the playoffs though? I'm not so sure, for two reasons.

One, people fail to remember how great Detroit's pitching has been this month. Among starters who qualify, FOUR of Detroit's starting pitchers (JV, Sanchez, Fister, Scherzer) were among the top-21 ERAs in baseball for the month. Their team ERA for the month? 3.17, by far their best as a team for the season, by almost half a run. That's a really significant number and is pivotal in winning games.

Two, remember the seven game stretch where Detroit went from three games down to three games up? Cabrera went 5-26 with 1 HR and 3 RBI. The counterargument, and rightfully so, would be to say that his production earlier in the month is what put them in the position to make that run in the first place. I completely agree with that sentiment.

However, Trout's production upon his call-up in early May (when Albert Pujols literally had the worst AVG and OPS in baseball) was the biggest catalyst in taking the Angels from six games below .500 on May 1st to eight games over on June 30th. Without that stretch, the Angels don't sniff a playoff run. Does Cabby get some extra points for doing it later in the season? Of course he does. It's still worth noting though.

Historical significance: Cabrera will be the first triple crown winner since 1967 when Carl Yazstremski did it. Even then, he was tied for the league lead in one of the categories and some diehards still say Yaz isn't a true winner of the note. Cab's oft-noted combination of hits, doubles, homers, RBI and average are numbers only accomplished by legends Gehrig and Ruth. That alone is enough to realize the greatness of what he's done.

Another frequent oversight is what Trout has done statistically. His line of .324, 30/49 and 129+ runs scored is something accomplished by exactly zero players in baseball history. Not one. His missed month makes the counting stats even more amazing. It doesn't have the positive stigma a phrase like "Triple Crown" does, but for a leadoff hitter, it's arguably as impressive. 30/50 has only been done twice; pre-roid Barry Bonds and Eric Davis. Both barely hit .300 and Bonds scored 101 runs while playing in about 20 more games than Trout did this season. His season has been historically significant as well.

RBI/Baserunning: I'll go to Fangraphs.com for this one (it's lengthy; pertinent points highlighted):

If you’re going to quote Cabrera’s RBI advantage, you must also quote his massive disadvantage in GIDPs – they are the fruit of the same tree. The more intellectually honest way to measure this value is through looking at both GIDPs and RBIs as a function of plate appearances where those results were made possible by the actions of the people batting in front of both players, but if you’re not going to do that with RBIs, then you have to count the full weight of Cabrera’s extra outs against him.

If you’d rather actually adjust for those opportunity differences, however, we should probably note that Cabrera has had 415 baserunners when he’s batted this year, compared to just 274 for Trout. Cabrera has driven in 52 additional runs while having an extra 141 guys on base because of where he hits in the line-up. If we look at runs driven in as a percentage of total men on base when both men hit, we see that Cabrera has driven in 31% of his total baserunners, while Trout is at 28% – both way above the league average of 15%, and a difference much smaller than raw RBI totals would lead you to believe.

There’s really two choices here – ignore opportunities and give Cabrera credit for driving in many more runs while also penalizing him for creating many more outs, or adjust for opportunity and realize that Cabrera hasn’t actually been that much better than Trout at bringing his teammates home once they get on base. And, of course, none of this accounts for anything that happens after the two of them leave the batters box, or the value of the extra runs that Trout creates with his legs.

Left out of the net difference table above were things like stolen bases and other runner advancements, but of course those have value, and even the staunchest Cabrera supporter should admit that Trout should get some credit for the value of his speed. So, let’s look at the net differences in things that have to do with baserunning.

Stolen Bases: Trout, +42
Caught Stealing: Trout, +3
Other Outs Made On Base: Cabrera, +2
First to Third on a Single: Trout, +13
Second to Home on a Single: Trout, +5

This is Trout in a landslide, as you’d expect. Not only has Trout put himself in scoring position far more often by stealing second base, he’s also scored more often when his teammates have gotten hits and he’s been on base. The fact that Trout has 18 additional runs scored despite playing in those 21 fewer games shows the magnitude of the difference that baserunning can make, and it’s of course silly to only consider runs created with the bat and ignore those with the legs. Trout has scored 45% of the times he’s been on base — easily the highest of any regular in the AL — compared to a league average of just 31% and Cabrera’s 28% total. Yes, some of that is having Albert Pujols hit behind him, but of course Prince Fielder hits behind Cabrera, mitigating the argument that run scored percentage is solely a function of the guy hitting behind you. 

These are all stats and numbers created by simple, measurable scenarios. No oogie boogie WAR. The crux is simple; Trout's ability to run the bases is what has allowed him to score as many runs as he has, while his ability to drive runners in is exceptionally close to what Cabrera has done.

Look, I don't care if you agree with me or not. I'm passionate about baseball. I know Cabrera will win, and that's fine. I just don't agree with it, and I think my viewpoint is more than solid.